Read this article to find out some tips to bankroll and stakes managment
IS THE BETTING STAKES MANAGEMENT AS IMPORTANT AS THE GOOD SELECTION OF TIPS?
After a daily deal with our customers, amateur profile and even more professional, we have observed that bettors, in general, pay little attention to the betting stakes management.
This means that there are players (although they are placing forecasts with long-term profit) whose bankroll has such ups and downs that the growing trend could be hidden with its variance. This is derived from poor management of stakes. Certain bad practices in stake management considerably increase the variance of the bankroll. This usually ends in very strong falls down that end up scaring the player.
With the term "Poor management of stakes" we mean not having a specific rule / habit. This means that decisions are made lightly without prior study or analysis. Examples of bad practices: Having an equivalence € / ut. too high depending on the bank, increase / decrease (arbitrarily and without method) the value of the unit between tips, or even assign the same unit to two different tipsters without taking into account the average stake, yield, variance, odds dropping, or even the weight that is wanted to be given to each tipster in the portfolio.
When you are allocating the €/UT equivalence to the tipsters you follow, the following should be taken into account:
- An individual analysis of each tipster: it makes you have an assessment regarding the benefit and risk of the specialist. This analysis contemplates, at a minimum, analysing the yield taking into account the average quota decrease with which you usually bet your forecasts, in addition to the variance, measured with the drawdown and the average share.
The variance of a tipster, understood as the variability of the benefit or the bankroll, is mostly affected by the regularity of the tipster in selecting good tips and, in addition, by the statistical or random variance that is revealed in short periods of time. This is higher when the tipster increases the average odds of their tips.
The tipsters with higher real yield and less variance are the most valued, obviously. The most professional players make more exhaustive analysis for each tipster including qualitative information, but we will not enter into it in this article because we don’t recommend beginners to do it. After this individual analysis of the tipster, you must be clear how good each one of the tipsters you follow is individually.
- The units wagered per month, on average, for each tipster: You can approximate it by the average number of picks per month multiplied by the average stake. This amount directly influences the money that I will bet on each tipster monthly (we call it "weight") and, therefore, in the benefit that each one will give you and in the yield and variance of your portfolio.
Think of a case: suppose I follow betsfutamateur, mybasketpicks and reddington. I assign the same equivalence to betsfutamateur as to reddington because they are of similar confidence for me, € 100 for example. I will be playing approximately € 8800 a month to betsfutamateur (since it plays 88 uts. a month) and € 2900 to reddington (since it is played 29uts per month). That makes the profitability of my money most related to what a single tipster does, betsfutamateur, although initially it seemed that I was giving the same weight to one another, assigning the same unit.
As with the yield and profit, the variance of our bank is affected by the individual variance of the tipsters and by the weights each one has in our portfolio.
For example, if MyBasketPicks has a drawdown of -90 uts and I assign 1% of the bank to all the tipsters in my portfolio, at the end of the drawdown period MyBasketPicks will have made me lose 90% of the bank, which is tragic and no matter how well other tipsters do in that period, it will be difficult to come out positive.
To the tipsters that are more regular, they can be assigned higher unit equivalence than those that have more variance. The goal to do that is to minimize the total variance of our bank.
In the next article we will give a simple method, so that most beginners can have a guide to assign stakes to their portfolio. It will serve this as an aid, not as the bible, since something much more elaborate and optimal can be done. The aim is that this method avoids the most common failures that are usually carried out by newer players.