Basics for a good selection of a horse racing tipster and a correct management of his tips
In this article we will try to show the main considerations that must be taken into account to follow a horse tipster. They can be extended to any kind of tipster but we will focus on the specific characteristics of horse racing tipsters.
The main difference of these tipsters is that the tip's odds are higher than in other sports. You should think that the horse that is favourite for a race will usually have odds between @2-@5, the reason why is the odds of the rest of runners move between @ 5- @ 100. This means that, even picks can have value, you can accumulate a large sequence of losing picks until you win one. That winning pick, if at high odds, will normally recover your losses and put your bank back in a positive position.
In any case, there are differences; a tipster of horses that sticks principally to favorites, whose average quote is @ 4- @ 5, or one that plays non-favorites @ 5- @ 10 or one that plays outsiders (> @ 10). Any of them can be a winner, although we must recognize that there are more good tipsters in the market in the second and third category than in the first. In general, it seems that betting horses adjusts the share of favorite horses much better than that of non-favorites. That is why you can find higher yields in tipsters whose picks are higher than @ 5-6.
In fact, the yield of the best horse racing tipsters are quite high, compared to the tipsters who focus in other sports, including small markets. In addition, we must bear in mind that it is a fairly liquid market that can be followed with several bookmakers without the frequency of limitation being high. This makes horse racing a very profitable sport to bet on.
What are the problems? The variance in the results over time. The best medicine for this is to be patient and have a conservative and consistent stake management.
It is very common that a horse tipster, despite sending 70-100 picks in a month, can end up in losses. Those picks may have been well selected, but they can lose because of the statistical noise. Remember that the value is something that is proven in the long term. This happens, as we have said before, because the average odds are very high. In the same way, the following month can be glorious and get a 100% yield. You have to be patient and wait for the "bombs". We want to emphasize one thing: "the bombs" are not luck, it is the style or strategy in this sport. Making an analogy with football, if Valencia is going to play against Barcelona and bookies pay @25 for a Valencia win. If we consider that these odds are overvalued, we will bet on it. This bet is likely to lose often, but when Valencia wins (in the long run it always happens since the probabilities are fulfilled), due to the high odds, we will recover the loss. In horse racing something similar happens. You have to get used to losing most of the bets, because when you win, the winnings compensate.
WHAT MINIMUM NUMBER OF PICKS IS NECESSARY TO HAVE STATISTICAL EVIDENCE THAT A TIPSTER IS GOOD?
As we have seen in other articles published on the blog, the minimum number of picks to have statistical certainty that a tipster is good is a variable that depends directly on the average odds and the yield. If, in any case, a sample of 700 picks with a yield of 20% can be enough for a tipster that has an average odds of @2, perhaps, for a tipster of average odds @10 with the same yield, you need a number of picks x5. That is 3500 picks.
HOW CAN I MANAGE THE VARIANCE IN THE PROFIT PRODUCED BY HIGH ODDS?
To minimize this variance, we recommend betting lower amounts on horse racing tips than on other sports.
Example: if I have a football Tipster whose average odds are @1.9 sending 100 units per month (in average and another horse racing tipster sending 100 units, too, but whose average odds is @9. Suposse that i have the same confidence in both tipsters. Then, we advise dividing the unit/€ equivalent for Horse Racing tips /4. That is, if you place 100€ per unit in soccer tips, then place 25€ per unit in Horse Racing Tips. It is not exact, just an estimate. What we want this is if you accumulate a bad streak of losing picks, which in horses are 3-5 times longer, do not be scared and stop betting, when the winners arrive you will not be betting anymore.
This happens to most players with a more amateur profile. It's a pitty, because it is giving up one of the most profitable sports in sports betting.
I ONLY HAVE ONE OR TWO BOOKIES TO FOLLOW THE HORSE RACING TIPS. WILL THE SERVICE BE PROFITABLE?
Another issue to consider in these services is the odds dropping. It is a standard in the industry that the tipsters send their tips in the bookmaker that offers the highest odds. Normally, due to the regulation, and even to the comfort, the followers do not have an account in all the bookies. They are limited to following the tips with one or two bookies. Depending on the yield of the tipster and the odds dropping, you can follow the service without any problem. Keep in mind that the yield will be somewhat lower since you are betting some odds at a smaller price. It is very important to set a level of "No Bet Under", minimum odds to which I should no longer bet the pick. A simple rule is to use the tipster yield divided by 2. That is, if the tipster I follow has a yield of 20% I will never place odds which have dropped more than 10%. In the long term, if tipster mantains past results, your yield will be higher than 10%. And it will be close to 20% if you place most of bets at advised odds.
For example: if a pick arrives with odds @10 in William Hill and I only bet with Bet365, I will only place this bet it if the pick is at least to @9. If it's @ 8.5, I'll do not place. If this does not happen very frequently, we should not worry. If it happens often, you have to rethink because the service is not profitable for you.
WHEN DO I HAVE TO INCREASE OR DECREASE STAKES?
Finally, we want to emphasize that the stake must be consistent over time. Do not change it impulsively in good or bad streaks. Since we know that these streaks are interspersed randomly, if you add stake changes, you will add variance to the benefit. The intrinsic variance of horse Racing is enough, don't you think?
We hope that with this article you have some guidelines to help you follow horse racing tipsters. And if you want a recommendation, we do not want to miss the opportunity to tell you to try "TheManInTheKnow", our English Horse Racing tipster. 22% yield in more than 4700 picks with 44/53 positive months. Profitability, regularity and experience of 4 years forecasting.